Barnsley vs Oldham: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 7Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Oakwell, Barnsley, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Oldham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barnsley vs Oldham?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Barnsley (1,786) and Oldham (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barnsley have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Oldham have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Barnsley win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Oldham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2018 | Oldham 1-2 Barnsley | EFL Trophy |
| Apr 12, 2016 | Barnsley 2-1 Oldham | League One |
| Nov 21, 2015 | Oldham 1-2 Barnsley | League One |
| Mar 14, 2015 | Oldham 1-3 Barnsley | League One |
| Feb 3, 2015 | Barnsley 1-0 Oldham | League One |
| Oct 7, 2014 | Oldham 2-2 Barnsley | EFL Trophy |
How many goals should we expect?
Barnsley score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Oldham score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Oldham | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barnsley sit 2nd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Oldham sit 4th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnsley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 4 | Oldham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barnsley vs Oldham?
- The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Oldham.
- Where and when is Barnsley vs Oldham played?
- Barnsley vs Oldham is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Oakwell, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.