Barnsley vs Notts County: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Oakwell, Barnsley, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Notts County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barnsley vs Notts County?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Barnsley (1,786) and Notts County (1,826).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barnsley have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Notts County have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Barnsley win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Notts County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | Notts County 2-1 Barnsley | EFL Trophy |
| Nov 10, 2018 | Barnsley 4-0 Notts County | FA Cup |
| Apr 14, 2015 | Notts County 1-1 Barnsley | League One |
| Oct 21, 2014 | Barnsley 2-3 Notts County | League One |
Last archived meeting: Notts County vs Barnsley on Sep 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Barnsley score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Notts County score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Notts County | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barnsley sit 21st in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Notts County sit 15th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barnsley vs Notts County?
- The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Notts County.
- Where and when is Barnsley vs Notts County played?
- Barnsley vs Notts County is played on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Oakwell, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.