Plymouth vs Luton: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Home Park, Plymouth
The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Luton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Plymouth vs Luton?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Plymouth (1,919) and Luton (1,945).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Plymouth have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Luton have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tavistock(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reading(away) | 4-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Kholood(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Plymouth win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Luton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Luton 2-1 Plymouth | EFL Trophy |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Plymouth 1-0 Luton | League One |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Luton 2-3 Plymouth | League One |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Luton 1-1 Plymouth | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Plymouth 3-1 Luton | Championship |
| Mar 9, 2019 | Plymouth 0-0 Luton | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Plymouth score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Luton score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Luton | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Plymouth sit 22nd in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Luton sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Plymouth vs Luton?
- The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Luton.
- Where and when is Plymouth vs Luton played?
- Plymouth vs Luton is played on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Home Park, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.