Plymouth vs Luton: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Home Park, Plymouth
The Footlab AI model makes Luton the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Plymouth. The most likely score is 1-1. If Luton wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,605 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Plymouth vs Luton?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Plymouth (1,884) and Luton (1,919).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Plymouth vs Luton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Plymouth
3-4-3- 9W. Evans
- 27A. Pepple
- 10X. Amaechi
- 7H. White
- 19T. Bakinson
- 8J. Edwards
- 11R. Curtis
- 45W. Harding
- 15A. Mitchell
- 5Julio Pleguezuelo
- 1M. Mahoney
Luton
4-1-4-1- 21N. Wells
- 8L. Walsh
- 45K. Palmer
- 10J. Donley
- 18J. Clark
- 17T. Mendel-Idowu
- 5M. Andersen
- 6G. Johnston
- 25I. Jones
- 3K. Naismith
- 1J. Shea
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 01:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Plymouth have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Luton have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 3-2 | League One |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Huddersfield(home) | 0-2 | League One |
| Oct 10, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Peterborough(away) | 2-0 | League One |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Doncaster(home) | 3-1 | League One |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Barnsley(home) | 2-1 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Plymouth wins, 2 draws, 1 Luton win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Luton 2-1 Plymouth | EFL Trophy |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Plymouth 1-0 Luton | League One |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Luton 2-3 Plymouth | League One |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Luton 1-1 Plymouth | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Plymouth 3-1 Luton | Championship |
| Mar 9, 2019 | Plymouth 0-0 Luton | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Plymouth score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Luton score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Luton | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Plymouth sit 5th in League One (23 points from 14 matches) and Luton sit 4th (24 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 23 |
A question about Plymouth vs Luton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Plymouth vs Luton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Luton the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Plymouth.
- Where and when is Plymouth vs Luton played?
- Plymouth vs Luton is played on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Home Park, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.