Barra vs Nação: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, Itajaí, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Barra the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Nação. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barra vs Nação?
Barra starts as the favourite with a 194-point Elo edge (1,742 vs 1,548).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barra have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Nação have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maringá(away) | 1-2 | Serie C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AO Itabaiana(home) | 1-0 | Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ituano(away) | 0-2 | Serie C |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ypiranga-RS(away) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Santa Cruz(home) | 1-2 | Serie C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hercílio Luz(home) | 1-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Caravaggio(home) | 2-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jaraguá(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(home) | 1-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Barra win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Nação win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | Nação 0-4 Barra | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Jan 25, 2024 | Nação 0-4 Barra | Catarinense - 1 |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Barra 1-1 Nação | Copa Santa Catarina |
How many goals should we expect?
Barra score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Nação score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barra | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Nação | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barra vs Nação?
- The Footlab model makes Barra the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Nação.
- Where and when is Barra vs Nação played?
- Barra vs Nação is played on August 30, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.