Blumenau vs Santa Catarina: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Ervin Blaese, Indaial, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Santa Catarina the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Blumenau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Blumenau vs Santa Catarina?
Santa Catarina starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,786 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Blumenau have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Santa Catarina have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Nação(home) | 0-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Guarani de Palhoça(away) | 1-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Metropolitano(home) | 4-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Hercílio Luz(home) | 0-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(away) | 1-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Sao Jose(home) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Sao Jose(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Cascavel(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
| May 31, 2026 | Cianorte(away) | 3-1 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | São Luiz(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Blumenau win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Santa Catarina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2024 | Blumenau 1-1 Santa Catarina | Catarinense - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Blumenau vs Santa Catarina on Jun 23, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Blumenau score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Catarina score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blumenau | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Santa Catarina | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Blumenau vs Santa Catarina?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Catarina the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Blumenau.
- Where and when is Blumenau vs Santa Catarina played?
- Blumenau vs Santa Catarina is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Ervin Blaese, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.