Marcílio Dias vs Joinville: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, Itajaí, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Joinville. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marcílio Dias vs Joinville?
Marcílio Dias starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,794 vs 1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marcílio Dias have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Joinville have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Cascavel(home) | 2-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Cascavel(away) | 2-2 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Independiente FSJ(away) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Azuriz(home) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| May 24, 2026 | Sao Jose(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | São Luiz(away) | 1-3 | Serie D |
| May 30, 2026 | Guarany de Bagé(home) | 2-0 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | Cianorte(home) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| May 16, 2026 | Santa Catarina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| May 10, 2026 | Cascavel(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Marcílio Dias win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Joinville win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Marcílio Dias 2-0 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Joinville 2-4 Marcílio Dias | Catarinense - 1 |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Joinville 1-1 Marcílio Dias | Serie D |
| May 10, 2025 | Marcílio Dias 1-0 Joinville | Serie D |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Joinville 1-1 Marcílio Dias | Catarinense - 1 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Joinville 2-2 Marcílio Dias | Copa Santa Catarina |
Last archived meeting: Marcílio Dias vs Joinville on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marcílio Dias score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Joinville score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcílio Dias | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Joinville | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marcílio Dias vs Joinville?
- The Footlab model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Joinville.
- Where and when is Marcílio Dias vs Joinville played?
- Marcílio Dias vs Joinville is played on August 30, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.