Barranquilla vs Real Cartagena: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 15Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, Barranquilla
The Footlab model makes Real Cartagena the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Barranquilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barranquilla vs Real Cartagena?
Real Cartagena starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,621 vs 1,474).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barranquilla have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Real Cartagena have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Santander(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Depor FC(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Junior(home) | 3-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Orsomarso(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 6-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Soacha(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | America de Cali(home) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Barranquilla win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Real Cartagena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Real Cartagena 2-1 Barranquilla | Primera B |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Barranquilla 0-0 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Real Cartagena 1-3 Barranquilla | Primera B |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Barranquilla 3-1 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Real Cartagena 0-0 Barranquilla | Primera B |
| May 7, 2025 | Real Cartagena 3-0 Barranquilla | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Real Cartagena vs Barranquilla on May 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barranquilla score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Cartagena score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barranquilla | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Cartagena | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barranquilla sit 7th in Primera B (20 points from 15 matches) and Real Cartagena sit 5th (27 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 10 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 30 | 50 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Barranquilla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 26 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 8 | Barranquilla | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 32 | 28 |
| 14 | Barranquilla | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Barranquilla | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barranquilla vs Real Cartagena?
- The Footlab model makes Real Cartagena the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Barranquilla.
- Where and when is Barranquilla vs Real Cartagena played?
- Barranquilla vs Real Cartagena is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.