Patriotas vs Envigado: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 15Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de La Independencia, Tunja
The Footlab AI model makes Envigado the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Patriotas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Envigado wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Patriotas vs Envigado?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Patriotas (1,509) and Envigado (1,590).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Patriotas vs Envigado
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Patriotas
4-3-3- 7J. Campaña
- 38J. Riuz
- 29Juan Sanchez
- 6F. Torres
- 10K. Alvarez
- 4J. Hurtado
- 22Alexander Porras
- 5E. Zapata
- 25S. E. Bello Vivas
- 2Carabali
- 26A. Macea
Envigado
4-3-3- 77D. Valencia
- 7D. Dawson
- 9Ángelo Rodríguez
- 6J. Palacios
- 99Miguel Marulanda
- 19S. Acuña
- 28J. Gamboa
- 15G. Cuervo
- 17Y. Rodallega
- 2D. Palacios
- 88A. Tovar
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Patriotas have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Envigado have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Popayan(away) | 1-4 | Primera B |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Union Magdalena(home) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Real Santander(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 3-3 | Primera B |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Depor FC(home) | 3-0 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Patriotas win, 2 draws, 3 Envigado wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Envigado 2-0 Patriotas | Primera B |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Patriotas 2-0 Envigado | Primera A |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Envigado 1-0 Patriotas | Primera A |
| Oct 7, 2022 | Envigado 3-2 Patriotas | Primera A |
| Apr 19, 2022 | Patriotas 0-0 Envigado | Primera A |
| Sep 11, 2021 | Patriotas 0-0 Envigado | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Envigado vs Patriotas on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Patriotas score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Envigado score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriotas | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Envigado | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Patriotas sit 11th in Primera B (35 points from 28 matches) and Envigado sit 2nd (58 points from 36 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Envigado | 36 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 48 | 33 | 58 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 35 | 35 |
A question about Patriotas vs Envigado?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Patriotas vs Envigado?
- The Footlab AI model makes Envigado the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Patriotas.
- Where and when is Patriotas vs Envigado played?
- Patriotas vs Envigado is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de La Independencia, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.