Patriotas vs Envigado: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 15Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de La Independencia, Tunja
The Footlab model makes Patriotas the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Envigado. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Patriotas vs Envigado?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Patriotas (1,561) and Envigado (1,640).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Patriotas have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Envigado have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Depor FC(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Santander(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(home) | 3-1 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Llaneros(away) | 1-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Quindio(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Patriotas win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Envigado win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Envigado 2-0 Patriotas | Primera B |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Patriotas 2-0 Envigado | Primera A |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Envigado 1-0 Patriotas | Primera A |
| Oct 7, 2022 | Envigado 3-2 Patriotas | Primera A |
| Apr 19, 2022 | Patriotas 0-0 Envigado | Primera A |
| Sep 11, 2021 | Patriotas 0-0 Envigado | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Envigado vs Patriotas on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Patriotas score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Envigado score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriotas | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Envigado | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Patriotas sit 11th in Primera B (17 points from 15 matches) and Envigado sit 2nd (33 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Envigado | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 33 |
| 2 | Patriotas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| 3 | Envigado | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 24 | 48 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 29 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Envigado | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Patriotas | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 25 |
| 11 | Envigado | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Patriotas vs Envigado?
- The Footlab model makes Patriotas the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Envigado.
- Where and when is Patriotas vs Envigado played?
- Patriotas vs Envigado is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de La Independencia, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.