Bogota FC vs Real Santander: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 15Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogotá, D.C.
The Footlab model makes Bogota FC the favourite at 55%, against 28% for a draw and 17% for Real Santander. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bogota FC vs Real Santander?
Bogota FC starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,456 vs 1,349).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bogota FC have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Real Santander have 1, 4 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Popayan(away) | 2-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Leones FC(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto(home) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Depor FC(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Patriotas(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 1-5 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bogota FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Real Santander win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Real Santander 1-2 Bogota FC | Primera B |
| Aug 4, 2025 | Real Santander 4-0 Bogota FC | Primera B |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Bogota FC 2-1 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Bogota FC 1-0 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Real Santander 3-0 Bogota FC | Primera B |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Bogota FC 1-2 Real Santander | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Real Santander vs Bogota FC on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bogota FC score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Real Santander score 0.8 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogota FC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Real Santander | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bogota FC sit 6th in Primera B (23 points from 15 matches) and Real Santander sit 16th (7 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bogota FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 26 | 33 |
| 7 | Bogota FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Bogota FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Real Santander | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 13 | Real Santander | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 34 | 13 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bogota FC vs Real Santander?
- The Footlab model makes Bogota FC the favourite at 55%, against 28% for a draw and 17% for Real Santander.
- Where and when is Bogota FC vs Real Santander played?
- Bogota FC vs Real Santander is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.