Bastia vs Orleans: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stade Armand-Césari, Furiani
The Footlab model makes Orleans the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Bastia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bastia vs Orleans?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Bastia (1,770) and Orleans (1,851).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bastia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Orleans have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Aubagne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 2 |
| May 2, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rouen(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Bastia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Orleans win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2021 | Orleans 2-1 Bastia | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 23, 2020 | Bastia 1-1 Orleans | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Bastia score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Orleans score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Orleans | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bastia sit 12th in Ligue 3 (3 points from 3 matches) and Orleans sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Orleans | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Bastia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bastia vs Orleans?
- The Footlab model makes Orleans the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Bastia.
- Where and when is Bastia vs Orleans played?
- Bastia vs Orleans is played on October 3, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Armand-Césari, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.