Bastia vs Valenciennes: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 15Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade Armand-Césari, Furiani
The Footlab AI model makes Bastia the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Valenciennes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bastia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,500 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bastia vs Valenciennes?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Bastia (1,829) and Valenciennes (1,794).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bastia vs Valenciennes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bastia
4-3-3- 7C. Rodrigues
- 29M. Boumaaoui
- 13C. Melieres
- 4A. Roncaglia
- 3H. Makalou
- 10Alexandre Bi Zaouai
- 17J. Eickmayer
- 21N. Douce
- 20G. Akueson
- 2N. Zilliox
- 1T. De Percin
Valenciennes
4-2-3-1- 11R. Ekra
- 8M. Rouai
- 10D. Diomande
- 19T. Marechal
- 26L. Boiteau
- 21V. Marcel
- 6M. Zogba
- 22D. Goprou
- 2Derrick Abu
- 13C. Rocchia
- 1J. Louchet
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bastia have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Valenciennes have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Quevilly(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Cannes(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Amiens(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Versailles(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | La Roche VF(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bastia wins, 2 draws, 2 Valenciennes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | Valenciennes 3-1 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Bastia 3-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Valenciennes 2-2 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Bastia 1-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Bastia 1-1 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 21, 2021 | Valenciennes 2-1 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
Last archived meeting: Valenciennes vs Bastia on Jan 27, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Bastia score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Valenciennes score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastia | 0.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Valenciennes | 1.2 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bastia sit 11th in Ligue 3 (15 points from 11 matches) and Valenciennes sit 15th (9 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bastia | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 9 |
A question about Bastia vs Valenciennes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bastia vs Valenciennes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bastia the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Valenciennes.
- Where and when is Bastia vs Valenciennes played?
- Bastia vs Valenciennes is played on December 12, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Armand-Césari, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.