Orleans vs Caen: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 15Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade de la Source, Orléans
The Footlab AI model makes Caen the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Orleans. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caen wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orleans vs Caen?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Orleans (1,826) and Caen (1,801).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Orleans vs Caen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Orleans
4-1-4-1- 19R. Legendre
- 7M. Diako
- 20B. Dali Amar
- 11G. Berthier
- 21L. Raillot
- 6H. Aubourg
- 5M. Sylla Diallo
- 3T. Ndicka
- 27M. Lemaitre
- 24I. Dramé
- 1F. Faham
Caen
4-3-3- 9F. El Khoumisti
- 20Keelyan Portut
- 10I. Botella
- 24Léo Milliner
- 25Z. Bagbema
- 18J. Bomo
- 3D. Bolumbu
- 23L. Carole
- 12D. Appiah
- 5Y. Diaby
- 16Y. Clémentia
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 12:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orleans have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Caen have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Bastia(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Amiens(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 0-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Rouen(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gobelins(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Orleans win, 1 draw, 3 Caen wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Caen 1-1 Orleans | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Orleans 2-1 Caen | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 14, 2021 | Orleans 1-3 Caen | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2021 | Caen 3-1 Orleans | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 1, 2019 | Caen 2-1 Orleans | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Orleans score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Caen score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans | 1.0 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Caen | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orleans sit 14th in Ligue 3 (9 points from 9 matches) and Caen sit 7th (15 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 15 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 9 |
A question about Orleans vs Caen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orleans vs Caen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caen the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Orleans.
- Where and when is Orleans vs Caen played?
- Orleans vs Caen is played on December 12, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade de la Source, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.