Beijing Guoan vs Rizhao Yuqi: prediction and stats
FA CupQuarter-finalsKick-off on September 1, 2026 at 11:35 AM (UTC)Lanzhou Olympic Center Stadium, Lanzhou
The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Rizhao Yuqi. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Rizhao Yuqi?
Beijing Guoan is a heavy favourite: 1,735 Elo points against 1,342 — a 393-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Beijing Guoan have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Rizhao Yuqi have 3, 11 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yunnan Yukun(home) | 3-3 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Shanghai Shenhua(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(away) | 4-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(home) | 4-0 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hangzhou Greentown(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Xi'an Ronghai(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shanghai Port II(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dalian Kewei(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 5, 2026 | BIT(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Qingdao Red Lions(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Beijing Guoan score 2.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Rizhao Yuqi score 0.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Rizhao Yuqi | 0.8 | 0.7 | 10 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Beijing Guoan vs Rizhao Yuqi?
- The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Rizhao Yuqi.
- Where and when is Beijing Guoan vs Rizhao Yuqi played?
- Beijing Guoan vs Rizhao Yuqi is played on September 1, 2026 at 11:35 AM (UTC) at Lanzhou Olympic Center Stadium, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.