Bezana vs Tropezón: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 34Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo De Fútbol Municipal De Bezana, Santa Cruz de Bezana
The Footlab model makes Tropezón the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Bezana. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bezana vs Tropezón?
Tropezón starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,900 vs 1,749).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bezana have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Tropezón have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Colindres(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Arnedo(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Arnedo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 31, 2026 | Laredo(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 24, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Bezana win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Tropezón win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Bezana 0-2 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Tropezón 0-0 Bezana | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Bezana 1-3 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Tropezón 1-1 Bezana | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Tropezón 1-1 Bezana | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Bezana 1-2 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Bezana score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tropezón score 1.2 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bezana | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Tropezón | 1.2 | 0.5 | 9 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bezana sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (47 points from 34 matches) and Tropezón sit 3rd (67 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tropezón | 34 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 27 | 67 |
| 10 | Bezana | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 38 | 47 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bezana vs Tropezón?
- The Footlab model makes Tropezón the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Bezana.
- Where and when is Bezana vs Tropezón played?
- Bezana vs Tropezón is played on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo De Fútbol Municipal De Bezana, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.