BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior: prediction and stats
Thai League 1Regular Season - 15Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)BG Stadium, Pathum Thani
The Footlab model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Lamphun Warrior. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
BG Pathum United starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,823 vs 1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BG Pathum United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Lamphun Warrior have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| May 10, 2026 | Prachuap(home) | 3-0 | Thai League 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Muangthong United(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC(home) | 1-0 | Thai League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Prachuap(away) | 0-1 | FA Cup |
| May 10, 2026 | Buriram United(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Chiangrai United(home) | 0-0 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Rayong FC(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ratchaburi(home) | 1-2 | Thai League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 BG Pathum United win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Lamphun Warrior win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Lamphun Warrior 1-1 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Aug 23, 2025 | BG Pathum United 2-1 Lamphun Warrior | Thai League 1 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | BG Pathum United 1-0 Lamphun Warrior | Thai League 1 |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Lamphun Warrior 2-2 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Lamphun Warrior 2-0 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Sep 29, 2023 | BG Pathum United 3-0 Lamphun Warrior | Thai League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United on Jan 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
BG Pathum United score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lamphun Warrior score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BG Pathum United | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Lamphun Warrior | 0.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BG Pathum United sit 4th in Thai League 1 (52 points from 30 matches) and Lamphun Warrior sit 12th (29 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BG Pathum United | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 29 | 52 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 30 | 4 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 47 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?
- The Footlab model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Lamphun Warrior.
- Where and when is BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior played?
- BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior is played on December 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at BG Stadium, in the Thai League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.