Binéfar vs Fraga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Group 17 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Los Olmos, Binéfar
The Footlab model makes Binéfar the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Fraga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Binéfar vs Fraga?
Binéfar starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,783 vs 1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Binéfar have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Fraga have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Andorra CF(away) | 3-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 3, 2026 | Utrillas(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | CDJ Tamarite(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atlético Monzón(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Almudévar(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Almudévar(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 4, 2025 | Andorra CF(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Binéfar(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Zuera(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Huesca II(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Binéfar win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Fraga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Binéfar 3-1 Fraga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Fraga 2-2 Binéfar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Fraga 0-0 Binéfar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Binéfar 2-2 Fraga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Fraga 1-0 Binéfar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Dec 20, 2020 | Binéfar 0-0 Fraga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
How many goals should we expect?
Binéfar score 2.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Fraga score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binéfar | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Fraga | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Binéfar | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 58 | 47 | 48 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Binéfar vs Fraga?
- The Footlab model makes Binéfar the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Fraga.
- Where and when is Binéfar vs Fraga played?
- Binéfar vs Fraga is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Los Olmos, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.