Birmingham vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 8, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)St Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Watford. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,664 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Birmingham vs Watford?
Birmingham starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (2,006 vs 1,810).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Birmingham vs Watford
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Birmingham
4-2-3-1- 9A. Priske
- 24T. Iwata
- 28J. Stansfield
- 17L. Millar
- 14J. Solis
- 16P. Roberts
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 4C. Klarer
- 5P. Neumann
- 20A. Cochrane
- 1J. Beadle
Watford
4-2-3-1- 9L. Kjerrumgaard
- 5H. Kyprianou
- 39E. Kayembe
- 17Iker Bravo
- 20M. Doumbia
- 7O. Maamma
- 6M. Pollock
- 4K. Keben
- 3S. Coulibaly
- 23O. Traoré
- 1F. Ravaglia
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 12:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Birmingham have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Watford have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | QPR(home) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-5 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Birmingham win, 1 draw, 4 Watford wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | Watford 3-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Birmingham 2-1 Watford | Championship |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Birmingham 0-1 Watford | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Watford 2-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Watford 3-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2022 | Birmingham 1-1 Watford | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Birmingham score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Watford | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Birmingham sit 4th in Championship (20 points from 11 matches) and Watford sit 20th (11 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 20 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Birmingham vs Watford?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Watford?
- The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Watford.
- Where and when is Birmingham vs Watford played?
- Birmingham vs Watford is played on December 8, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at St Andrew's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.