BKMA vs Ararat: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on April 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan
The Footlab model makes BKMA the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Ararat. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BKMA vs Ararat?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate BKMA (1,487) and Ararat (1,474).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BKMA have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Ararat have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Noah(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ararat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Shirak(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 26, 2026 | Ararat(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | BKMA(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Andranik(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 BKMA win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Ararat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | BKMA 1-2 Ararat | Premier League |
| May 26, 2026 | Ararat 1-1 BKMA | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | BKMA 4-0 Ararat | Premier League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Ararat 2-2 BKMA | Premier League |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Ararat 1-1 BKMA | Premier League |
| Feb 14, 2025 | BKMA 1-0 Ararat | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
BKMA score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ararat score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKMA | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Ararat | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BKMA sit 10th in Premier League (1 points from 4 matches) and Ararat sit 9th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ararat | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 10 | BKMA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BKMA vs Ararat?
- The Footlab model makes BKMA the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Ararat.
- Where and when is BKMA vs Ararat played?
- BKMA vs Ararat is played on April 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Yerevan Football Academy, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.