Bolívar vs Monagas SC: prediction and stats
Copa VenezuelaRound 1 - Group EKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar, Bolívar
The Footlab model makes Monagas SC the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Bolívar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bolívar vs Monagas SC?
Monagas SC starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (1,649 vs 1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bolívar have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Monagas SC have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz(home) | 1-2 | Copa Venezuela |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Monagas II(away) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aragua FC(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Mineros de Guyana(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Portuguesa FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mineros de Guyana(home) | 1-0 | Copa Venezuela |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Tachira FC(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carabobo FC(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 4, 2026 | UCV(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Bolívar win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Monagas SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2025 | Bolívar 0-0 Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Monagas SC 1-0 Bolívar | Copa Venezuela |
How many goals should we expect?
Bolívar score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Monagas SC score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolívar | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Monagas SC | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bolívar sit 3rd in Copa Venezuela (1 points from 2 matches) and Monagas SC sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monagas SC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bolívar vs Monagas SC?
- The Footlab model makes Monagas SC the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Bolívar.
- Where and when is Bolívar vs Monagas SC played?
- Bolívar vs Monagas SC is played on August 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar, in the Copa Venezuela.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jun 24, 2026Mineros de Guyana1-1Bolívar
- Jun 24, 2026Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz0-4Monagas SC
- Jul 5, 2026Monagas SCvsBolívar
- Jul 5, 2026Dinamo de Puerto La CruzvsMineros de Guyana
- Jul 8, 2026Dinamo de Puerto La CruzvsBolívar
- Jul 8, 2026Mineros de GuyanavsMonagas SC
- Jul 12, 2026Monagas SCvsDinamo de Puerto La Cruz
- Jul 12, 2026BolívarvsMineros de Guyana