Borgosesia vs Derthona: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale, Borgosesia
The Footlab model makes Borgosesia the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Derthona. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Borgosesia vs Derthona?
Derthona starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,644 vs 1,541).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Borgosesia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Derthona have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2024 | Chieri(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Vado(away) | 0-4 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Alcione(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Lavagnese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Bra(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Gozzano(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | Saluzzo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sanremese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Borgosesia win(s), 5 draw(s), 0 Derthona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2024 | Borgosesia 1-1 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Derthona 1-1 Borgosesia | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Derthona 1-3 Borgosesia | Serie D - Girone A |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Borgosesia 2-2 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Feb 12, 2022 | Borgosesia 0-0 Derthona | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 6, 2021 | Derthona 1-1 Borgosesia | Serie D - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Borgosesia vs Derthona on Mar 17, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Borgosesia score 0.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Derthona score 0.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borgosesia | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Derthona | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Derthona | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 36 | 46 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Borgosesia vs Derthona?
- The Footlab model makes Borgosesia the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Derthona.
- Where and when is Borgosesia vs Derthona played?
- Borgosesia vs Derthona is played on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.