Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 2Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stadion Botev, Novi pazar
The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Botev Novi Pazar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo?
Ustrem Donchevo starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,442 vs 1,286).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Novi Pazar have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Ustrem Donchevo have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 6-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 2-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Riltzi(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Botev Novi Pazar win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Ustrem Donchevo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-1 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Botev Novi Pazar 2-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| May 25, 2025 | Botev Novi Pazar 1-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 3-1 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Botev Novi Pazar 1-2 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Ustrem Donchevo 2-1 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Ustrem Donchevo vs Botev Novi Pazar on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Novi Pazar score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Novi Pazar | 1.7 | 2.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Novi Pazar sit 2nd in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Botev Novi Pazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo?
- The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 44%, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Botev Novi Pazar.
- Where and when is Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo played?
- Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo is played on August 26, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Botev, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.