Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno more II: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Donchevo, Donchevo
The Footlab AI model makes Cherno more II the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for Ustrem Donchevo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cherno more II wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,928 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno more II?
Cherno more II starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,531 vs 1,384).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno more II
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ustrem Donchevo
Not enough data to predict the Ustrem Donchevo lineup.
Cherno more II
Not enough data to predict the Cherno more II lineup.
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 08:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ustrem Donchevo have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Cherno more II have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Septemvri Dragoevo(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 2-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 4-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Devnya 2005(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Volov Shumen(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Riltzi(home) | 2-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ustrem Donchevo win, 2 draws, 3 Cherno more II wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-3 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Cherno more II 1-2 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| May 11, 2025 | Cherno more II 1-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-4 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Cherno more II 2-2 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-2 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno more II on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ustrem Donchevo score 2.1 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno more II score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ustrem Donchevo | 2.1 | 2.7 | 0 | 14/15 | 14/15 |
| Cherno more II | 1.6 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ustrem Donchevo sit 14th in Third League - Northeast (10 points from 12 matches) and Cherno more II sit 9th (14 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cherno more II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 14 |
| 14 | Ustrem Donchevo | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 10 |
A question about Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno more II?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno more II?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cherno more II the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for Ustrem Donchevo.
- Where and when is Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno more II played?
- Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno more II is played on November 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Donchevo, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.