Olympic Varna vs Septemvri Dragoevo: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 2Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Septemvri Dragoevo the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for Olympic Varna. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olympic Varna vs Septemvri Dragoevo?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Olympic Varna (1,405) and Septemvri Dragoevo (1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olympic Varna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Septemvri Dragoevo have 1, 0 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(away) | 4-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 0-8 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 9, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
How many goals should we expect?
Olympic Varna score 1.7 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Dragoevo score 4.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympic Varna | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Septemvri Dragoevo | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Olympic Varna sit 4th in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Septemvri Dragoevo sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Olympic Varna | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olympic Varna vs Septemvri Dragoevo?
- The Footlab model makes Septemvri Dragoevo the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for Olympic Varna.
- Where and when is Olympic Varna vs Septemvri Dragoevo played?
- Olympic Varna vs Septemvri Dragoevo is played on August 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.