Bourges Foot vs Fréjus St-Raphaël: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group CGroup C - 6Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Yves du Manoir, Bourges
The Footlab model makes Bourges Foot the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Fréjus St-Raphaël. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bourges Foot vs Fréjus St-Raphaël?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Bourges Foot (1,673) and Fréjus St-Raphaël (1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bourges Foot have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Fréjus St-Raphaël have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2021 | Orleans(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 10, 2020 | Trélissac(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group D |
| Sep 26, 2020 | Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03(home) | 0-2 | National 2 - Group D |
| Sep 19, 2020 | Canet Roussillon(away) | 1-0 | National 2 - Group D |
| Sep 12, 2020 | Mont-de-Marsan(away) | 4-0 | National 2 - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Saint-Priest(home) | 3-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 16, 2026 | Grasse(home) | 1-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 9, 2026 | Bobigny(away) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 2, 2026 | Toulon(home) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Saint-Priest(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
Bourges Foot score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fréjus St-Raphaël score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bourges Foot | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Fréjus St-Raphaël | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bourges Foot vs Fréjus St-Raphaël?
- The Footlab model makes Bourges Foot the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Fréjus St-Raphaël.
- Where and when is Bourges Foot vs Fréjus St-Raphaël played?
- Bourges Foot vs Fréjus St-Raphaël is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Yves du Manoir, in the National 2 - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.