Buffles vs Ayema: prediction and stats
Championnat NationalRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Municipal de Parakou, Parakou
The Footlab model makes Buffles the favourite at 44%, against 36% for a draw and 20% for Ayema. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Buffles vs Ayema?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Buffles (1,767) and Ayema (1,735).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Buffles have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Ayema have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Dragons(away) | 1-1 | Championnat National |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Bani Gansè(home) | 1-1 | Championnat National |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Damissa(away) | 2-0 | Championnat National |
| May 30, 2026 | Espoir Savalou(home) | 2-3 | Championnat National |
| May 23, 2026 | AS Sobemap(away) | 0-1 | Championnat National |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Hodio(away) | 1-1 | Championnat National |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Kraké(home) | 1-1 | Championnat National |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Dragons(away) | 0-1 | Championnat National |
| May 30, 2026 | Bani Gansè(home) | 1-0 | Championnat National |
| May 22, 2026 | Espoir Savalou(away) | 1-0 | Championnat National |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Buffles win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ayema win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Ayema 0-0 Buffles | Championnat National |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Buffles 1-0 Ayema | Championnat National |
| Jun 8, 2023 | Ayema 4-1 Buffles | Championnat National |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Buffles 3-2 Ayema | Championnat National |
| Mar 23, 2022 | Ayema 0-0 Buffles | Championnat National |
| Jun 23, 2021 | Buffles 0-1 Ayema | Championnat National |
How many goals should we expect?
Buffles score 0.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ayema score 1.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 21% probability of over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffles | 0.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Ayema | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9 | 2/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Buffles sit 5th in Championnat National (50 points from 33 matches) and Ayema sit 12th (39 points from 33 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Buffles | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 32 | 22 | 50 |
| 12 | Ayema | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 19 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Buffles vs Ayema?
- The Footlab model makes Buffles the favourite at 44%, against 36% for a draw and 20% for Ayema.
- Where and when is Buffles vs Ayema played?
- Buffles vs Ayema is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipal de Parakou, in the Championnat National.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 21% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.