Bury Town vs Needham Market: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - Southern CentralRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Atalian Servest Stadium, Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Needham Market. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bury Town vs Needham Market?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Bury Town (1,848) and Needham Market (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bury Town have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Needham Market have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leamington(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stratford Town(away) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stamford(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Halesowen Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AFC Sudbury(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Halesowen Town(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alvechurch(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Hitchin Town(away) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bromsgrove Sporting(home) | 1-3 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Banbury United(home) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Bury Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Needham Market win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Bury Town 1-1 Needham Market | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Needham Market 4-2 Bury Town | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Jul 26, 2022 | Needham Market 4-0 Bury Town | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2021 | Bury Town 3-1 Needham Market | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Bury Town vs Needham Market on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bury Town score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Needham Market score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury Town | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Needham Market | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bury Town sit 2nd in Non League Premier - Southern Central (9 points from 3 matches) and Needham Market sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bury Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Needham Market | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bury Town vs Needham Market?
- The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Needham Market.
- Where and when is Bury Town vs Needham Market played?
- Bury Town vs Needham Market is played on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Atalian Servest Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Southern Central.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 13, 2026StamfordvsStratford Town
- Oct 13, 2026Halesowen TownvsAlvechurch
- Oct 13, 2026Bishop's StortfordvsReal Bedford
- Oct 13, 2026Bromsgrove SportingvsKettering Town
- Oct 13, 2026LeistonvsHitchin Town
- Oct 13, 2026Peterborough SportsvsBanbury United
- Oct 13, 2026LeamingtonvsRedditch United
- Oct 13, 2026Anstey NomadsvsRushall Olympic