Cabeza Buey vs Jerez: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Cabeza Buey the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Jerez. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cabeza Buey vs Jerez?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Cabeza Buey (1,826) and Jerez (1,760).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cabeza Buey have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Jerez have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Jaraíz(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Montehermoso(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Jerez(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Montehermoso(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Villafranca(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Don Benito(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Cabeza Buey win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Jerez win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Cabeza Buey 3-0 Jerez | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Jerez 1-1 Cabeza Buey | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Cabeza Buey score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Jerez score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabeza Buey | 1.4 | 1.2 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Jerez | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cabeza Buey sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (57 points from 34 matches) and Jerez sit 10th (41 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cabeza Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 57 |
| 10 | Jerez | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56 | 51 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cabeza Buey vs Jerez?
- The Footlab model makes Cabeza Buey the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Jerez.
- Where and when is Cabeza Buey vs Jerez played?
- Cabeza Buey vs Jerez is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.