Caen vs Villefranche: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 33Kick-off on May 14, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Villefranche. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caen vs Villefranche?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Caen (1,777) and Villefranche (1,706).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Villefranche have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aubagne(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(away) | 3-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dieppe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Gobelins(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 2-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 15, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Caen win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Villefranche win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Caen 3-0 Villefranche | Ligue 3 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Villefranche 1-1 Caen | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Caen score 2.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Villefranche score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Villefranche | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caen sit 4th in Ligue 3 (6 points from 3 matches) and Villefranche sit 11th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Villefranche | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caen vs Villefranche?
- The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Villefranche.
- Where and when is Caen vs Villefranche played?
- Caen vs Villefranche is played on May 14, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Michel d'Ornano, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.