Valenciennes vs Caen: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 34Kick-off on May 21, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stade du Hainaut, Valenciennes
The Footlab AI model makes Caen the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Valenciennes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caen wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,576 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valenciennes vs Caen?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Valenciennes (1,793) and Caen (1,844).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Valenciennes vs Caen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Valenciennes
4-2-3-1- 11R. Ekra
- 8M. Rouai
- 19T. Marechal
- 10D. Diomande
- 21V. Marcel
- 27Z. Amir
- 6M. Zogba
- 22D. Goprou
- 2Derrick Abu
- 13C. Rocchia
- 1J. Louchet
Caen
4-3-3- 9F. El Khoumisti
- 20Keelyan Portut
- 10I. Botella
- 24Léo Milliner
- 25Z. Bagbema
- 18J. Bomo
- 3D. Bolumbu
- 23L. Carole
- 12D. Appiah
- 5Y. Diaby
- 16Y. Clémentia
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 06:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valenciennes have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Caen have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Amiens(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Versailles(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | La Roche VF(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fleury 91(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | La Roche VF(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Rouen(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gobelins(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Valenciennes win, 2 draws, 3 Caen wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caen 4-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 3 |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Valenciennes 2-1 Caen | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Caen 0-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 3 |
| May 17, 2024 | Caen 3-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Valenciennes 2-2 Caen | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Caen 2-1 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Valenciennes score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Caen score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Caen | 2.2 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valenciennes sit 15th in Ligue 3 (8 points from 9 matches) and Caen sit 3rd (18 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 18 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 8 |
A question about Valenciennes vs Caen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valenciennes vs Caen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caen the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Valenciennes.
- Where and when is Valenciennes vs Caen played?
- Valenciennes vs Caen is played on May 21, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stade du Hainaut, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.