Valenciennes vs Caen: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 34Kick-off on May 21, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stade du Hainaut, Valenciennes
The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Valenciennes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valenciennes vs Caen?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Valenciennes (1,747) and Caen (1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valenciennes have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Caen have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caen(away) | 0-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Boulogne(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aubagne(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(away) | 3-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dieppe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Valenciennes win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Caen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caen 4-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 3 |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Valenciennes 2-1 Caen | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Caen 0-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 3 |
| May 17, 2024 | Caen 3-0 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Valenciennes 2-2 Caen | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Caen 2-1 Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Valenciennes score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Caen score 2.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Caen | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valenciennes sit 13th in Ligue 3 (3 points from 3 matches) and Caen sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | Valenciennes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valenciennes vs Caen?
- The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Valenciennes.
- Where and when is Valenciennes vs Caen played?
- Valenciennes vs Caen is played on May 21, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stade du Hainaut, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.