Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)The Oval, Caernarfon, Gwynedd
The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Caernarfon Town. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints?
The New Saints starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (2,077 vs 1,910).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caernarfon Town have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; The New Saints have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Penybont(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Caernarfon Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 The New Saints win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 0-4 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Feb 20, 2026 | The New Saints 2-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Nov 28, 2025 | The New Saints 2-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2025 | The New Saints 3-0 Caernarfon Town | League Cup |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 1-3 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Mar 11, 2025 | The New Saints 2-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints on Mar 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; The New Saints score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
| The New Saints | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caernarfon Town sit 6th in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and The New Saints sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | The New Saints | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints?
- The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Caernarfon Town.
- Where and when is Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints played?
- Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints is played on August 31, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at The Oval, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.