Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The Oval, Caernarfon, Gwynedd
The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Caernarfon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Caernarfon Town (1,892) and GAP Connah S Quay FC (1,945).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caernarfon Town have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; GAP Connah S Quay FC have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ballkani(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Caernarfon Town win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 GAP Connah S Quay FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 2-4 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Feb 6, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 2-2 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Sep 23, 2025 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Dec 3, 2024 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Caernarfon Town on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; GAP Connah S Quay FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caernarfon Town sit 6th in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
- The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Caernarfon Town.
- Where and when is Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC played?
- Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC is played on November 20, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The Oval, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.