Cagliari vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 28Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Unipol Domus, Cagliari
The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Cagliari. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fiorentina wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Cagliari (1,967) and Fiorentina (2,014).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cagliari vs Fiorentina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cagliari
4-3-2-1- 31P. Mendy
- 6H. Winks
- 8M. Adopo
- 4A. Romano
- 70D. Maldini
- 79Y. Massolin
- 15J. Rodríguez
- 2Zé Pedro
- 33A. Obert
- 26Y. Mina
- 1E. Caprile
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1- 23Beto
- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 42C. Inao Oulaï
- 29W. Gnonto
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 6L. Ranieri
- 21Valde
- 43David de Gea
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:58 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cagliari have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Fiorentina have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Hellas Verona(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 4-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cagliari win, 1 draw, 4 Fiorentina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Cagliari 1-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Cagliari 1-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Fiorentina 1-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| May 23, 2024 | Cagliari 2-3 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2023 | Fiorentina 3-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fiorentina vs Cagliari on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cagliari score 1.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Fiorentina | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cagliari sit 4th in Serie A (13 points from 6 matches) and Fiorentina sit 19th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 4 |
A question about Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Cagliari.
- Where and when is Cagliari vs Fiorentina played?
- Cagliari vs Fiorentina is played on March 14, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Unipol Domus, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.