Calasancio vs Varea: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Estrella, Logroño
The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Calasancio. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Calasancio vs Varea?
Varea is a heavy favourite: 1,797 Elo points against 1,477, a 320-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Calasancio vs Varea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Calasancio
4-3-3- EEduardo García Ballesteros
- DDiego Saez Salinas
- MMarcos Medrano Bodega
- DDavid Lozano
- DDavid Sacristan Moreno
- FFidel GarcÃa
- IIbrahima Korca Ba
- SS. Londoño
- ÁÁlvaro Huerta
- RRaúl Fernández Tamayo
- IIván López Villar
Varea
Not enough data to predict the Varea lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:19 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Calasancio have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Varea have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Vianés(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Casalarreina(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Calahorra(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Anguiano(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 3-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Agoncillo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Calasancio wins, 0 draws, 1 Varea win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2019 | Varea 5-1 Calasancio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Calasancio score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Varea score 0.8 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calasancio | 1.1 | 2.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Varea | 0.8 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Calasancio sit 15th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (5 points from 5 matches) and Varea sit 7th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Varea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 5 |
A question about Calasancio vs Varea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Calasancio vs Varea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Calasancio.
- Where and when is Calasancio vs Varea played?
- Calasancio vs Varea is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Estrella, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.