Camacha vs Guarda: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 17Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Complexo Desportivo da Camacha, Camacha (Ilha da Madeira)
The Footlab model makes Camacha the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Guarda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Camacha vs Guarda?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Camacha (1,807) and Guarda (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Camacha have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Guarda have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Salgueiros(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vilaverdense(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alpendorada(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Régua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Leça(away) | 2-6 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Beira-Mar(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Camacha win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Guarda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2025 | Camacha 1-1 Guarda | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Guarda 1-2 Camacha | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Camacha score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Guarda score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camacha | 1.3 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Guarda | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Camacha sit 3rd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (4 points from 2 matches) and Guarda sit 13th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Camacha | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Camacha vs Guarda?
- The Footlab model makes Camacha the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Guarda.
- Where and when is Camacha vs Guarda played?
- Camacha vs Guarda is played on February 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Complexo Desportivo da Camacha, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.