Cancún vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 7Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo, Cancún
The Footlab model makes Cancún the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Cruz Azul Hidalgo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cancún vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Cancún (1,904) and Cruz Azul Hidalgo (1,912).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cancún have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Cruz Azul Hidalgo have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Piratas(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Durango(home) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 1-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CA La Paz(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Monarcas(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 0-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Tapatío(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Cancún score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Cruz Azul Hidalgo score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancún | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cancún sit 14th in Liga de Expansión MX (0 points from 2 matches) and Cruz Azul Hidalgo sit 13th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cancún | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Cancún | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cancún vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo?
- The Footlab model makes Cancún the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Cruz Azul Hidalgo.
- Where and when is Cancún vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo played?
- Cancún vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo is played on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.