Durango vs Tlaxcala: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango
The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 75%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Tlaxcala. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Durango vs Tlaxcala?
Durango starts as the favourite with a 294-point Elo edge (2,008 vs 1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Durango have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Tlaxcala have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Piratas(home) | 0-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CA La Paz(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Durango win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Tlaxcala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2023 | Tlaxcala 1-2 Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 3, 2022 | Durango 3-0 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tlaxcala score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Tlaxcala | 1.2 | 1.6 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Durango sit 6th in Liga de Expansión MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Tlaxcala sit 15th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Durango | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Durango | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 | Tlaxcala | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Durango vs Tlaxcala?
- The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 75%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Tlaxcala.
- Where and when is Durango vs Tlaxcala played?
- Durango vs Tlaxcala is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Francisco Zarco, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.