Carlisle vs Eastleigh: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 34Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Brunton Park, Carlisle, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Eastleigh. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carlisle vs Eastleigh?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (1,901 vs 1,695).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carlisle have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Eastleigh have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 3-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(away) | 0-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gateshead(home) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Farnham Town(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Carlisle win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Eastleigh win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Eastleigh 1-2 Carlisle | National League |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Carlisle 1-1 Eastleigh | National League |
Last archived meeting: Eastleigh vs Carlisle on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Eastleigh score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Eastleigh | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carlisle sit 12th in National League (4 points from 3 matches) and Eastleigh sit 8th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Eastleigh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carlisle vs Eastleigh?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Eastleigh.
- Where and when is Carlisle vs Eastleigh played?
- Carlisle vs Eastleigh is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Brunton Park, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.