Forest Green vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 35Kick-off on February 23, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The Bolt New Lawn, Nailsworth, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Forest Green. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Forest Green vs Carlisle?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Forest Green (1,852) and Carlisle (1,901).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Forest Green have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Carlisle have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Boreham Wood(home) | 0-3 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Worthing(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 3-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Forest Green win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Carlisle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Forest Green 1-3 Carlisle | National League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Carlisle 4-2 Forest Green | National League |
| Jan 22, 2022 | Forest Green 3-0 Carlisle | League Two |
| Oct 2, 2021 | Carlisle 0-2 Forest Green | League Two |
| Feb 2, 2021 | Carlisle 1-2 Forest Green | League Two |
| Dec 19, 2020 | Forest Green 1-0 Carlisle | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Forest Green vs Carlisle on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Forest Green score 2.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Forest Green sit 10th in National League (6 points from 3 matches) and Carlisle sit 12th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Forest Green | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Forest Green vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Forest Green.
- Where and when is Forest Green vs Carlisle played?
- Forest Green vs Carlisle is played on February 23, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The Bolt New Lawn, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.