Castellanzese vs Pavia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, Castellanza
The Footlab AI model makes Castellanzese the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Pavia. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,796 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellanzese vs Pavia?
On Elo ratings, Castellanzese has 1,740 points and Pavia 1,675.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castellanzese vs Pavia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castellanzese
Not enough data to predict the Castellanzese lineup.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 02:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellanzese have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Pavia have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Crema(home) | 4-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Solbiatese(away) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pistoiese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Castellanzese wins, 1 draw, 1 Pavia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Pavia 1-0 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Castellanzese 0-0 Pavia | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Pavia vs Castellanzese on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Castellanzese score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Pavia score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellanzese | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Pavia | 0.9 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castellanzese sit 5th in Serie D - Girone D (15 points from 7 matches) and Pavia sit 11th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Castellanzese | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 15 |
| 11 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
A question about Castellanzese vs Pavia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellanzese vs Pavia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castellanzese the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Pavia.
- Where and when is Castellanzese vs Pavia played?
- Castellanzese vs Pavia is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.