Oltrepò vs Arconatese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Oltrepò the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Arconatese. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oltrepò vs Arconatese?
Oltrepò starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,721 vs 1,603).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oltrepò have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Arconatese have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Brusaporto(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Villa Valle(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sondrio(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Real Calepina(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Breno(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Chievo(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Sangiuliano City(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Fanfulla(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Oltrepò score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Arconatese score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oltrepò | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Arconatese | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oltrepò vs Arconatese?
- The Footlab model makes Oltrepò the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Arconatese.
- Where and when is Oltrepò vs Arconatese played?
- Oltrepò vs Arconatese is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.