Castellonense vs La Nucía: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet, Castelló
The Footlab model makes Castellonense the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for La Nucía. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellonense vs La Nucía?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Castellonense (1,861) and La Nucía (1,886).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellonense have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; La Nucía have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Atzeneta(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 2, 2026 | Hércules II(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Saguntino(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ontinyent 1931(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Villarreal III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Alcoyano(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Trival Valderas(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Trival Valderas(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Levante II(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 31, 2026 | Levante II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Castellonense win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 La Nucía win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Castellonense 2-0 La Nucía | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | La Nucía 0-2 Castellonense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 25, 2025 | La Nucía 1-2 Castellonense | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2025 | Castellonense 0-0 La Nucía | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Castellonense 0-2 La Nucía | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | La Nucía 1-1 Castellonense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
Last archived meeting: Castellonense vs La Nucía on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Castellonense score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; La Nucía score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellonense | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| La Nucía | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellonense vs La Nucía?
- The Footlab model makes Castellonense the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for La Nucía.
- Where and when is Castellonense vs La Nucía played?
- Castellonense vs La Nucía is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.