Castellonense vs Real Murcia II: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet, Castelló
The Footlab model makes Castellonense the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Real Murcia II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Castellonense (1,861) and Real Murcia II (1,834).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellonense have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Real Murcia II have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Atzeneta(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 2, 2026 | Hércules II(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Saguntino(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ontinyent 1931(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Villarreal III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Pamplona(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Pamplona(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 31, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
How many goals should we expect?
Castellonense score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Murcia II score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellonense | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Real Murcia II | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
- The Footlab model makes Castellonense the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Real Murcia II.
- Where and when is Castellonense vs Real Murcia II played?
- Castellonense vs Real Murcia II is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.