Atlético Baleares vs Poblense: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Balear, Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears
The Footlab model makes Atlético Baleares the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Poblense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Baleares vs Poblense?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Atlético Baleares (2,020) and Poblense (1,985).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Baleares have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Poblense have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SS Reyes(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Madrid II(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mallorca II(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Poblense(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2026 | Real Jaén(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atlético Baleares(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2026 | Águilas(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2026 | Numancia(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Numancia(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Atlético Baleares win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Poblense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Poblense 1-0 Atlético Baleares | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Poblense 0-0 Atlético Baleares | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Atlético Baleares 2-1 Poblense | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Poblense 1-1 Atlético Baleares | Primera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Atlético Baleares 2-3 Poblense | Primera División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Poblense vs Atlético Baleares on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Baleares score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Poblense score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Baleares | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Poblense | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlético Baleares sit 2nd in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (66 points from 34 matches) and Poblense sit 3rd (59 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atlético Baleares | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 34 | 66 |
| 3 | Poblense | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 41 | 28 | 59 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Baleares vs Poblense?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Baleares the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Poblense.
- Where and when is Atlético Baleares vs Poblense played?
- Atlético Baleares vs Poblense is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Balear, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.