CastrumFavara vs Gela: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Giovanni Bruccoleri, Favara
The Footlab AI model makes CastrumFavara the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Gela. The most likely score is 1-1. If CastrumFavara wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CastrumFavara vs Gela?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate CastrumFavara (1,646) and Gela (1,644).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for CastrumFavara vs Gela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
CastrumFavara
Not enough data to predict the CastrumFavara lineup.
Gela
Not enough data to predict the Gela lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CastrumFavara have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Gela have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Igea Virtus(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Calcio Avola(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Modica(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Licata(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Milazzo(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 4, 2026 | AC Palermo(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Digiesse PraiaTortora(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Enna(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Siracusa(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 CastrumFavara wins, 0 draws, 2 Gela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Gela 2-1 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | CastrumFavara 3-1 Gela | Serie D - Girone I |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Gela 4-1 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| Aug 24, 2025 | CastrumFavara 1-0 Gela | Coppa Italia Serie D |
Last archived meeting: Gela vs CastrumFavara on Sep 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CastrumFavara score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gela score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CastrumFavara | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Gela | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CastrumFavara sit 12th in Serie D - Girone I (7 points from 7 matches) and Gela sit 14th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | CastrumFavara | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 14 | Gela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
A question about CastrumFavara vs Gela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CastrumFavara vs Gela?
- The Footlab AI model makes CastrumFavara the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Gela.
- Where and when is CastrumFavara vs Gela played?
- CastrumFavara vs Gela is played on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Giovanni Bruccoleri, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.