CastrumFavara vs Gela: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Giovanni Bruccoleri, Favara
The Footlab model makes CastrumFavara the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Gela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CastrumFavara vs Gela?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate CastrumFavara (1,680) and Gela (1,673).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CastrumFavara have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Gela have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Enna(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Paternò(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gela(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | AC Palermo(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Acireale(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Gelbison(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vibonese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | CastrumFavara(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Reggina(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Nissa(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 CastrumFavara win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Gela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | CastrumFavara 3-1 Gela | Serie D - Girone I |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Gela 4-1 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| Aug 24, 2025 | CastrumFavara 1-0 Gela | Coppa Italia Serie D |
Last archived meeting: CastrumFavara vs Gela on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CastrumFavara score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gela score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CastrumFavara | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Gela | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CastrumFavara sit 11th in Serie D - Girone I (38 points from 34 matches) and Gela sit 9th (43 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gela | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 44 | 43 |
| 11 | CastrumFavara | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CastrumFavara vs Gela?
- The Footlab model makes CastrumFavara the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Gela.
- Where and when is CastrumFavara vs Gela played?
- CastrumFavara vs Gela is played on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Giovanni Bruccoleri, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.