Licata vs CastrumFavara: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Saraceno, Ravanusa
The Footlab model makes Licata the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for CastrumFavara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Licata vs CastrumFavara?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Licata (1,580) and CastrumFavara (1,679).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Licata have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; CastrumFavara have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | CastrumFavara(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Relegation - Play-offs |
| May 4, 2025 | Nissa(away) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Pompei(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Sambiase(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Paternò(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Enna(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Paternò(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gela(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | AC Palermo(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Acireale(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Licata win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 CastrumFavara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | CastrumFavara 2-0 Licata | Serie D - Relegation - Play-offs |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CastrumFavara 0-0 Licata | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Licata 2-1 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
Last archived meeting: CastrumFavara vs Licata on May 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Licata score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; CastrumFavara score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Licata | 0.9 | 1.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| CastrumFavara | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | CastrumFavara | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Licata vs CastrumFavara?
- The Footlab model makes Licata the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for CastrumFavara.
- Where and when is Licata vs CastrumFavara played?
- Licata vs CastrumFavara is played on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Saraceno, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.