CastrumFavara vs Vigor Lamezia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 23Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Giovanni Bruccoleri, Favara
The Footlab model makes CastrumFavara the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Vigor Lamezia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CastrumFavara vs Vigor Lamezia?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate CastrumFavara (1,679) and Vigor Lamezia (1,718).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CastrumFavara have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Vigor Lamezia have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Enna(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Paternò(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gela(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | AC Palermo(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Acireale(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Igea Virtus(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sancataldese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Messina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Milazzo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Savoia(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 CastrumFavara win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Vigor Lamezia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia 1-2 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| Nov 2, 2025 | CastrumFavara 1-1 Vigor Lamezia | Serie D - Girone I |
Last archived meeting: Vigor Lamezia vs CastrumFavara on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CastrumFavara score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vigor Lamezia score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CastrumFavara | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Vigor Lamezia | 1.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CastrumFavara sit 11th in Serie D - Girone I (38 points from 34 matches) and Vigor Lamezia sit 10th (42 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vigor Lamezia | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 43 | 35 | 42 |
| 11 | CastrumFavara | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CastrumFavara vs Vigor Lamezia?
- The Footlab model makes CastrumFavara the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Vigor Lamezia.
- Where and when is CastrumFavara vs Vigor Lamezia played?
- CastrumFavara vs Vigor Lamezia is played on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Giovanni Bruccoleri, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.