Catania vs Bari: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 15Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Angelo Massimino, Catania
The Footlab AI model makes Catania the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Bari. The most likely score is 1-1. If Catania wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Catania vs Bari?
On Elo ratings, Catania has 1,886 points and Bari 1,840.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Catania vs Bari
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Catania
4-3-3- 10E. Cicerelli
- 7G. Bruzzaniti
- 99Flavio Russo
- 16A. Quaini
- 18N. Cavuoti
- 4A. Vallocchia
- 68M. Ierardi
- 5M. Perrotta
- 15M. Di Gennaro
- 32E. Masciangelo
- 57A. Dini
Bari
4-3-1-2- 7K. Butić
- 24F. Bianchi
- 25G. Maggiore
- 5E. Darboe
- 21M. Della Morte
- 11A. Tribuzzi
- 79M. Elia
- 6V. Mogoș
- 72N. Cocetta
- 14M. Anzolin
- 31M. Cerofolini
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Catania have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Bari have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Team Altamura(away) | 3-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Crotone(home) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Casertana(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 15, 2026 | AZ Picerno(away) | 4-2 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Giugliano(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Salernitana(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cosenza(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sorrento(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Potenza(home) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Catania wins, 4 draws, 2 Bari wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2022 | Bari 3-3 Catania | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Catania 1-2 Bari | Serie C - Girone C |
| Feb 21, 2021 | Catania 1-1 Bari | Serie C - Girone C |
| Oct 26, 2020 | Bari 4-1 Catania | Serie C - Girone C |
| Oct 27, 2019 | Catania 0-0 Bari | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 10, 2011 | Bari 1-1 Catania | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Catania score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Bari score 1.3 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catania | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Bari | 1.3 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Catania sit 4th in Serie C - Girone C (16 points from 9 matches) and Bari sit 2nd (19 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | Catania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 16 |
A question about Catania vs Bari?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Catania vs Bari?
- The Footlab AI model makes Catania the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Bari.
- Where and when is Catania vs Bari played?
- Catania vs Bari is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Angelo Massimino, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.