Celta Vigo vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
The Footlab model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Celta Vigo (2,119) and Malaga (2,056).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta Vigo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Malaga have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Ittihad FC(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Celta Vigo win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Malaga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2018 | Celta Vigo 0-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Oct 29, 2017 | Malaga 2-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| May 7, 2017 | Malaga 3-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 8, 2017 | Celta Vigo 3-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| May 8, 2016 | Celta Vigo 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Jan 2, 2016 | Malaga 2-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Malaga | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
- The Footlab model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Celta Vigo vs Malaga played?
- Celta Vigo vs Malaga is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.