Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 240-point Elo edge (2,337 vs 2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Real Madrid win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Rayo Vallecano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Real Madrid 0-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.