Athletic Club vs Elche: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Elche. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Elche?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Athletic Club (2,084) and Elche (2,051).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Elche have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Eibar(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Athletic Club win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Elche win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Athletic Club 2-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Elche 0-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 28, 2023 | Athletic Club 0-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Elche 1-4 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Athletic Club 2-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2021 | Elche 0-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Elche on Feb 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Elche score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Elche | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Elche | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Elche?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Elche.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Elche played?
- Athletic Club vs Elche is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.